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Category 'Best Actress'

The LAMB Devours the Oscars - Best Actress

Editor’s note: Welcome to the seventh of a 33-part series dissecting the 83rd Academy Awards, brought to you by the Large Association of Movie Blogs and its assorted members. Every day leading up to the Oscars, a new post written by a different LAMB will be published, each covering a different category of the Oscars. To read any other posts regarding this event, please click the tag following the post. Thank you, and enjoy!

by Andrew at Encore’s World of Film & TV

If you were online on Tuesday morning you might have experienced some crashing of servers or slight hiccups with page loading. That was probably evidence of the zillion cinephiles worldwide logging on to see what the latest nominations for the Academy Awards were. It’s weird, we cinephiles have this symbiotic love/hate relationship with the Oscars. We’re always quick to condemn their humdrum choices, but we spend months waiting to see what the choices will be. The wonders of cinema, eh? The Best Actress race is always an interesting one to watch – if you’re a cinephile, chances are you like your actresses and there’s always much to discuss with the nominees AMPAS picks.

            
This year we get this five: a lesbian mother dealing with the sperm donor who may be taking over her family’s life, a grieving mother who copes my lashing out at everyone around her, a teenage girl looking to save her home and her family, a ballerina devoted to her trade and a woman in a marriage where she feels trapped – without knowing why.
Pundits would have you think that like the Actor and Supporting Actor race this one is all locked up – but I’ve always been a conscientious dissenter, let’s examine the field.
Annette Bening in The Kids Are All Right as Nic
previous nods: Supporting Actress nomination for The Grifters (1990), Actress Nomination for American Beauty (1999), Actress Nomination for Being Julia (2004)
notable un-nominated roles: Bugsy (1991), The American President (1995), Running With Scissors (2006)
Pros: It’s arguable, everything is, but I’d say that Annette Bening is easily one of the most overdue actors over forty. Now, depending on who you are the idea of someone acquiring an Oscar for being due is loathsome, but if you trace back each Actress win of the decade (except for Theron, Swan and Berry) they were each awarded – in addition to the good performances – on some level, for having had stellar careers. Of the five nominees Bening qualifies most easily as Hollywood royalty. She’s been in the business longest, she’s married to Oscar winner Warren Beatty and she’s probably worked with the most members. She’s also incredibly charming, philanthropic and easygoing – which can never hurt in a campaign.
Who’s Voting For Her (and Who’s Not): Well, you can only except Warren to cast his vote in her direction – though there’s a lesser chance that all the women he’s ever been affiliated won’t (and that’s a sizeable chunk). Jeremy Irons, Michael Gambon, Michael Douglas, Kevin Spacey and Kerry Washington might probably be throwing their voters towards her, and probably Julianne Moore too. I’d wager that she’s probably not getting Hilary Swank’s vote…
Cons: Let’s face it, Annette is old – by the Academy’s standards and this category is not receptive to older women. Julia vs Ellen; Halle vs Sissy and Judi; Charlize vs Diane; Hilary vs Annette; Reese vs Felicity; Marion vs Julie; Sandra vs Meryl. True, in half of these cases I think the right decision was made it’s a bit difficult to ignore what seems to be an overwhelming trend in favour of youth. Annette’s also suffering from the fact that her film is a) a comedy and b) an ensemble flick. One thing The Kids Are All Right does, which I love it for, is that it doesn’t set anyone up to be the hero and there’s often so much chatter about what constitutes a “true” lead. Annette and Julianne lead in accordance with each other and if lazy voters look for an easy choice for a true lead, it won’t be her.
The Performance (my thoughts): It’s a bit too easy to look at the pragmatic Nic and lump her with all the other strong women that Annette has played, it’s a disservice to her talent and to sensible female characters everywhere – all strong women are not synonymous in their strength. Choledenko’s film depends a great deal on the chemistry of the main quintet and Annette, like her co-stars, is very comfortable in the role. Her rapport with Julianne Moore stands out especially and it’s her ability to play realistic without being harsh that is her calling card here. Nic never becomes the stereotype that she could, which has to do with the writing but even more with Annette’s sensitive interpretation.
Nicole Kidman in Rabbit Hole as Becca
previous nods: Actress nomination for Moulin Rouge (2001), Actress win for The Hours (2002)
notable un-nominated roles: To Die For (1995), Cold Mountain (2003), Birth (2004), Margot at the Wedding (2007)

Pros: Angels are singing (maybe it’s just in my head) because Nicole has finally made her way back to the Kodak theatre. This is Nicole’s first nominations since her Oscar win, even though she’s been doing fine work in between and maybe the voters want to show her just how much they miss her. Her role of a grieving mother, though not precisely sympathetic, might appeal to women voters.
Who’s Voting for Her (and Who’s Not): Marion Cotillard was recently singing praises for this performance, and she only recently starred opposite Nicole on Nine so maybe the entire Oscar winning ensemble is going to throw in their votes towards Nicole. There’s the possibility of her getting the Australian block, and I want to guess that Sean Penn and George Clooney are behind her, too.
Cons: As sympathetic as Becca could be, she’s something of a bitch at times and one wonders if that abrasiveness could turn off voters. Then there’s also the fact that Nicole (unlike her competition) has been fêted by the Academy before. She’s happily married, just got another child and seems generally perfect – does she really need more? Add that to the fact that Rabbit Hole has ended up being one of the most woefully ignored smaller films of 2010 picking up no traction for ANYTHING other than Nicole’s performance, she probably doesn’t have that much of a chance.
The Performance (my thoughts): Nicole assumes the role of Becca with aplomb and she loses herself in the role so much it’s difficult to imagine anyone else playing it. It’s something generic and clichéd (even if it’s true) to play the grieving mother as a shell of herself. Becca is different, angry with the world – harsh, even when she doesn’t realise it and Nicole ensures that the audience understands her behaviour, and sympathises despite the overt prickliness of it all. I still consider her to be one of the strongest actors of her generation, and this type of atypical role only solidifies that prognosis.
Jennifer Lawrence in Winter’s Bone as Ree
previous nominations/notable roles: N/A
Pros: None of the five women have as sympathetic an arc as Ree does in Winter’s Bone and the fact that the character she plays is on that tenuous precipice between childhood and womanhood makes her even more sympathetic. Winter’s Bone surprised a few with its four nominations which shows that there’s goodwill behind the film. Moreover, she’s also the only nominee playing the obvious “deglam” card, and there’s a vague physicality to the role which could impress voters.
Who’s Voting for Her (and Who’s Not): This is a tough one to vote, but I want to say Melissa Leo for the Frozen River parallels, and I’d wager Hilary Swank too who could sympathise (if not empathise) with the girl-in-a-small town equivalents. She suffers from being so close to Portman that they could be appealing to the same voting demographic.
Cons: She’s a very fresh face, and though Oscar likes its women young they don’t like them this young. She’s also facing competition from four women with way longer careers, three of them without a statue so as impressive a performance as it may be, she won’t be the first choice, and probably not even the alternate.
The Performance (my thoughts): I know more than a few were impressed with Hawkes and Dickey, but for me Lawrence carries Winter’s Bone on her young shoulders. It’s been compared to Frozen River in its minimalist approach (though, I think it’s superior) but like Leo Lawrence must ensure that the film never eludes the audience. The role is a physical one, and it’s also one that depends on showy scenes as well as quieter introspective ones. She doesn’t exactly play through a gamut of emotions, but her character’s development is palpable.
Natalie Portman in Black Swan as Nina Sayers
previous nod: Supporting Actress nomination for Closer (2004)
notable un-nominated roles: Leon (1994); Brothers (2009)
Pros: Momentum, thy name is Natalie Portman. Sometimes, it all comes down to timing and Black Swan’s impetus into the cinematic world has set Natalie Portman up as the one to beat. Like Lawrence, she’s carrying the film on shoulders and if persons begin looking for the actress who’s “leading” the most – she’s the obvious candidate. She’s around the right age, a previous nominee but still young enough to evoke that youthful cadence but in the business long enough so that her growth had been palpable. And who knows how many actors will relate to Nina’s dedication to her trade. Then there’s the fact that the role is such a physical one, and sometimes voters are attracted to the obvious tricks of the trade.
Who’s Voting for Her: Everyone in Black Swan, and knowing how much Julia Roberts loves her costars (read: Javier Bardem) she might be too, in fact throw in the entire cast of Closer and Mike Nichols for good measure (unless Jude goes for Nicole). Tobey MaGuire is probably voting for her, too.
Cons: Where there is momentum, there will soon be backlash… The thing about trends is that they always end up being broken, and if voters tire of incessantly rewarding the PYT – the more sedate, and mature Annette stands to benefit from any lack of love for Portman here. It’s a specific type of performance that depends on playing in a particular register, and discerning voters might not be impressed by the insular nature of it all. She’s arguably the least
The Performance (my thoughts): The biggest compliment I can give Natalie is that the role fits her like a glove. The issues that Nina faces are the same drawbacks of Natalie’s own skill as an actor. She’s able to approach Nina with this intensity which can seem narrow-minded but is necessary for the film. Despite qualms about Natalie as an actress she’s always notable for her ability to surrender to a performance, and though this not my favourite work of hers that sort of passion is crucial for the performance and for the film. She succeeds, brilliantly, in ensuring that all the technical aspects and performances around her don’t shroud Aronofsky’s singular arc.
Michelle Williams in Blue Valentine as Cindy
previous nods: Supporting Actress nomination for Brokeback Mountain
notable un-nominated roles: Wendy & Lucy (2008)
Pros: Although I’m not a fan of Williams in Brokeback Mountain, there are more than a few who’d profess that Rachel Weisz robbed her of an Oscar back in 2005. There’s nothing like a recent snub to encourage goodwill for an Oscar and if we want to get snarky we could always suggest that her nudity puts her in good stead for an Oscar (see Hana, Viola, Leticia, Ada). This is one of those special roles that doesn’t depend on an overt amount of physicality, but demands an emotional potency from the actor – which Williams delivers on.
Who’s Voting for Her (and Who’s Not): Alec Baldwin, apparently: he effusively praised the performance at the Golden Globes. Ryan Gosling and Ang Lee would probably be in her corner (and possibly Jake Gyllenhaal). Weinstein is obviously giving his vote her; but, let’s face it, she’s not getting Tom Cruise’s vote.
Cons: Even though this IS a Weinstein flick Blue Valentine hasn’t gotten nearly as publicity as it could have benefited from and there’s no telling how the sparring with the MPAA might swayed opinion on the actual film. This is the type of performance that’s patently part of a duo (with Gosling) and there’s no telling if there could be some ill will that she ends up with the nomination alone (although, it conversely turns into a pro if all the fans of the film decide to back her).

The Performance (my thoughts): The role is not a simple one, and she’s forced to play a woman dissatisfied with a marriage even if she has no precise reason to be, on the surface it’s evocative of her work in Brokeback Mountain but it’s significantly better. Williams is able to establish that ennui of marriage and even if you can’t understand her plight, it’s difficult to fault her for her feelings. And, she’s just as satisfying in the flashback portions establishing those same personal traits in Cindy that eventual go sour when they stagnate.
Gun to my head I’d rank them Annette, Nicole, Michelle, Jennifer, Natalie – although it could just as easily be Nicole, Annette, Michelle, Natalie, Jennifer.
PREDICTION: Something tells me that the race is not as wrapped up as it seems, and though everyone knows it’s down to Natalie and Annette I wouldn’t be terribly surprised if Old Hollywood trumps New Hollywood. I suppose I should wait for the results of the SAG to decide, but for now I’ll ignore that gut feeling and predict Natalie for the win (though, I’m crossing my fingers for a Bening surprise.)
                         
The fact that my least favourite performance of the lot could go on to win doesn’t disappoint me terribly considering that this lineup rivals 2000, 2003 and 2006 in terms of uniformity of good performances. Yes, it’s a shame that less buzzed about performances like Halle Berry in Frankie & Alice or Patricia Clarkson in Cairo Time didn’t get a chance to jump in or deserving also-rans like Julianne Moore couldn’t come to fruition, but I can honestly I’m generally content with this list.
              
What do you think of the Actress race this year?

The 3rd Annual LION Awards: Best Actress


A pretty tight race for Best Actress - well, at least compared to yesterday’s award. 46 votes cast again, and five ladies received at least four votes each. In the end, we got the Oscar nominee that most movie geeks are pulling for, followed by a major snubee.

Coming in second, with 7 votes, Charlotte Gainsbourg in Antichrist:


And the winner, with 11 votes, Carey Mulligan in An Education:


Next up… Best Actor. Stay tuned to the LAMB for more of the LIONs, culminating with our Top 10 Films of 2009.

(P.S. - I know you’re curious: Sandra Bullock came in 5th with 4 votes.)

The LAMB Devours the Oscars - Best Actress

Editor’s note: Welcome to the eighteenth of a 33-part series dissecting the 82st Academy Awards, brought to you by the Large Association of Movie Blogs and its assorted members. Every day leading up to the Oscars, a new post written by a different LAMB will be published, each covering a different category of the Oscars. To read any other posts regarding this event, please click the tag following the post. Thank you, and enjoy!

By Clara Mathews of Just Chick Flicks.

Each year the members of the Academy of Motion Pictures Art and Science nominate five women for their outstanding acting. Which can sometimes be difficult because quality roles for women are often scarce in Hollywood. This year five actresses have been nominated for their roles as the bored wife of a diplomat who learns to cook and changed the way we see food, the wife and muse of a famous author, an outspoken Texan who reaches out to a stranger and changed not only his life, but hers as well, an overweight, abused teenage mother who learns more than reading and writing from her teacher and a young girl who learns more about life by living it than she learns in the classroom.

Is it the role or the actress that makes an oscar winning performance? When we watch movies like Funny Girl, it is hard to imagine any other actress but Barbra Streisand. Who else could have played Brandon Teena in Boys Don’t Cry, but Hilary Swank? Was Reese Witherspoon the perfect June Carter in Walk the Line or Marion Cotillard the perfect Edith Piaf in La Vie en rose? Finding the perfect actress may be a question much like that of the chicken and the egg.

The Nominees

SANDRA BULLOCK for The Blind Side

It is often hard for comic actors to be taken seriously. But this year with Mo’Nique’s nomination for Best Supporting Actress and Sandra Bullock’s nomination for Best Actress in a Leading Role perhaps that has changed. Sandra Bullock has been the reigning ‘Queen of Romantic Comedy’ and is loved by fans of chick flicks for her sweet smile and perky attitude. In movies like Miss Congeniality, Two Weeks Notice and more recently in The Proposal, she has shown her ability to be a great comic actress. Sandra has also demonstrated her ability to take on more serious and dramatic parts in movies like 28 Days and Crash.

In her role as tough as nails southern housewife, Leigh Anne Touhy, Sandra gives the most acclaimed performance of her career. The Blind Side gives Sandra Bullock a chance to show us another side of herself and has won her the Critic’s Choice (tied with Meryl Streep), Golden Globe and Screen Actor’s Guild Awards in the process.

HELEN MIRREN for The Last Station

Helen Mirren won an Academy Award three years ago for her portrayal of Elizabeth II in The Queen. This year she receives her second nomination for her role as Sofya, the wife and muse of Russian writer Leo Tolstoy. Mirren is such a great actress that it seems as though anything she does is Oscar-worthy. So how hard is is for her to play this role as Tolstoy’s wife?

CAREY MULLIGAN for An Education

You may remember a young Carey Mulligan as the giggling Kitty Bennet in Pride and Prejudice (2005). Just a few years later the 24-year-old British actress is nominated for her first Oscar lead actress for An Education. Her portrayal of sixteen year old Jenny Mellor, a bright, hard working but also naturally gifted girl from a quiet suburb of London; whose life changes after she meets David Goldman, a man over twice her age. He shows her a very exciting lifestyle and their relationship teaches her things about life she could never learn in school. You see the transformation of a young innocent schoolgirl to a sophisticated woman.

GABOUREY SIDIBE for Precious: Based on the Novel ‘Push’ by Sapphire

An Oscar nomination for your first movie is a great way to start your acting career. Gabourey Sidibe, a psychology student at NY’s Mercy College brings to life the physically, emotionally and sexually abused Precious Jones. As with Jennifer Hudson, who won a Best Supporting Actress for her role in Dreamgirls (2006) and many other first time actors, it is a combination of talent and luck for her to have been cast in the right movie to showcase her talents.

When you watch Precious, you see an overweight, African-American teenager who has no self esteem and no sense of self worth. And seeing Gabourey Sidibe, the rotund young woman who plays Precious, it would be easy to imagine that she didn’t have far to go to play that role. But their two lives couldn’t be further apart, which gives you a glimpse of her talent.

MERYL STREEP for Julie & Julia

Meryl’s impressive list of nominations and awards are well deserved. Since her first nomination for Best Supporting Actress in 1978 for the Deer Hunter, her first Oscar for Best Actress in 1983 for Kramer vs. Kramer to her recent nominations for The Devil Wears Prada (2007) and Doubt (2009), Meryl has been a steady fixture on the Oscar scene. It wouldn’t seem like an Oscar show without a nomination for Meryl Streep. She is such a talented actress, that it is almost a given that anything she does will be wonderful. This year, she is nominated for her role as the famous and quirky Chef, Julia Child in Julie & Julia. This is her 13th Oscar nomination for Best Actress.

For those who you who have seen the real Julia Child’s PBS show, The French Chef, you will appreciate Meryl’s portrayal of Julia Child. Not only the distinctive voice, but she also captured many of Julia’s mannerism, all while making the character her own. Part of what made Julia Child a good chef was. as she said being fearless. That is what make Meryl an incredible actress. She is fearless. She is not afraid to take of the dramatic roles role or star in a romantic comedies like It’s Complicated. It was refreshing to see a 60-year old actress in a role that is often reserved for much younger actresses.

The veteran actresses and Oscar winners Meryl Streep and Helen Mirren, both have multiple nominations. They are two of the most talented actresses of our time, so much so that it seems everything they do is Oscar-worthy. The two young actresses, Gabourey Sidibe and Carey Mulligan are both first time nominees very early in their careers. But the one to watch is Sandra Bullock, an actress who has surprised everyone (including herself) with her runaway hit, The Blind Side. Sandra, this is your year!

The LAMB Devours the Oscars - Best Actress

Editor’s note: Welcome to the twentieth of a 24-part series dissecting the 81st Academy Awards, brought to you by the Large Association of Movie Blogs and its assorted members. Every day leading up to the Oscars, a new post written by a different LAMB will be published, each covering a different category of the Oscars. To read any other posts regarding this event, please click the tag following the post. Thank you, and enjoy!

By Nayana of The Center Seat.

As I’ve complained ad nauseum on The Center Seat, I’ve been a very bad film geek this year. I’ll spare you the gory details, but life has conspired… and I’ve actually had to make a conscious effort to see all the 2009 Oscar films. But still, I thought I was doing pretty well… until Fletch assigned me Best Actress, a category in which I had, at that point, seen only one of the nominated films!

Actually, it was a good thing. I got off my booty and went to the theater (and, in one case, Blockbuster), and now I can hold my head up in the LAMB’s distinguished company. So, here we go.

Melissa Leo, Frozen River

This was a gripping story about a recently single mother who resorts to border smuggling to pay the bills–and it’s the Canadian border. Cool twist, right? We’re saturated with Mexico border stories, so this was refreshing. And I have to say… maybe it was the snowy backdrop, or the northern accent, or the raw desperation to keep her head above water, but I saw a lot of people I know in Melissa Leo’s character. She’s real, frank, unadorned, the anti-glamour-puss. Of course a lot of the credit for that must be shared with the person who created the character: screenwriter Courtney Hunt, who is also nominated.

Leo is fairly unknown; a quick perusal of her IMDB page reveals lots of guest stints on Law & Order and CSI, and roles in various obscure films, perhaps the least obscure of which is Mr. Woodcock. Did you see that one? Yeah, me neither.

I’m actually really cool with Leo’s obscurity. How great would it be if relative unknowns were nominated at every Academy Awards? Of course she doesn’t have a chance in hell, but it’ll be nice to see her there Sunday night.

Meryl Streep - Doubt

Meryl Streep has gotten fifteen Academy Award nominations. Fifteen. That’s more than any other actor or actress in the history of the Oscars. I’m sure there’s a chair somewhere in the Kodak Theatre with Meryl’s ass-print permanently molded onto the seat.

Still, it shouldn’t be a surprise. Girlfriend can act. Overall, Doubt was a bit depressing for me (it’s the story of a priest who may or may not have misbehaved with one of his school’s young male students), but it was one of those movies that seemed custom-built as a showcase for great acting. And, naturally, Streep didn’t disappoint. She portrayed a harsh, militant nun who suspected the priest of wrongdoing and did all she could to prove herself right. That character had so much potential to be flat and uncomplicated, but Streep gave her flashes of humanity, with a fleeting look of uncertainty or a slight shaking of the hands. This is one case in which the actress seems to have made the character who she was. But, fairly or not, that’s what we’ve come to expect of Meryl Streep. Anything less than perfection in her would be a disappointment. Kind of a tough place to put her in, huh? Whatever. She’s got fifteen Oscar nominations.

Kate Winslet - The Reader

I came to this movie with the distinct disadvantage of having read the book. We all know that books tend to far surpass their movie adaptations. Nevertheless, I really enjoyed this movie, with its raw sexuality and complicated morality.

It’s hard to think of a more complicated, conflicted character to challenge Kate Winslet. In this movie, she played an illiterate Nazi war criminal who has an affair with a 16-year-old boy. It’s kind of Summer of ‘42-meets-Judgment at Nuremberg-meets-…I don’t know… a Lifetime movie about illiteracy. Of course Winslet pulls it off. She is somehow able to portray vulnerability and pride simultaneously, but perhaps her greatest feat is that we forget about Kate Winslet and instead become wholly absorbed in the story. This is a case, in contrast to Doubt, in which the acting is merely a part of the experience of the film.

Anne Hathaway - Rachel Getting Married

This is it. We are officially no longer allowed to dismiss Anne Hathaway as Princess Mia. I think we all suspected she was awesome (how much ass did she kick in Brokeback?) but now, there it is in black and white. She is a contender for the Academy Award for Best Actress.

It wasn’t just handed to her either. In a film which was sometimes difficult to watch, Hathaway delivered a stunning performance as a recovering addict trying to fit in with her family upon her return from rehab. She’s the classic black sheep, but the issues go deeper than that. In fact, the myriad issues of this textbook dysfunctional family explode at perhaps the worst possible time: the days surrounding the wedding of the “good” sister.

I have never seen Anne Hathaway like this. She knocked me on my ass. Frankly, she would absolutely get my vote for this particular Oscar, if it had not been for the final contender in this category…

Angelina Jolie - Changeling

I get a lot of flak from people I respect (Pistola, I’m talking to you) about my professional regard for Ms. Jolie. In this case, it’s sometimes hard to distinguish feelings about Jolie’s personal choices from judgment of her acting ability. Many people dismiss her as a skank/homewrecker/baby factory/whatever, and I’m not necessarily arguing with that. But I have always been a fan of Angelina Jolie the actress. From her first major role as a doomed supermodel in Gia, to her Oscar-winning turn as a sociopathic mental patient in Girl, Interrupted, to her heartbreaking portrayal of her own friend Marianne Pearl in A Mighty Heart, to this most recent role as a bereaved mother in Changeling, Angelina Jolie is a devastating actress. Her work speaks for itself.

I was shaking after I saw Changeling… Jolie is heartbreaking as a mother who tirelessly fights to find her lost son, even angering police and being thrown in a mental institution in the process. Of course she’s a great actress, but she brought something outstanding to this particular role. We all know, regardless of our personal feelings for her, that she loves her kids. In addition, she lost her own mother shortly before starting filming on Changeling. Perhaps it was this personal experience that allowed her to lay herself open on screen in such a raw way.

I am going to unabashedly throw my full support behind Angelina Jolie for this Oscar. But the truth is, no matter who wins this year, we can’t lose. The Academy has nominated five outstanding actresses, and whoever wins will do so because of merit, and not because of pity, or politics, or “it’s about time”, as in certain previous years (Halle Berry, I’m looking at you.)

The 2nd Annual LION Awards…Best Actress

The votes have been cast, the independent accounting firm of Fletch & Fletch has been consulted, and the time has come for the LIONs to be handed out.

Our sixth award for presentation is for Best Actress. There were a total of 50 votes, and the result is our second tie of the awards show. The winners, with 8 votes each…Kate Winslet for Revolutionary Road and Anne Hathaway for Bride Wars, er, Rachel Getting Married! Congrats, ladies!*


Dreamrot of $7 Popcorn nabs the bonus award for Best Out-there Vote for the second award in a row by virtue of voting for Rhona Mitra for Doomsday. Congrats, Dreamrot.

Next up…Best Actor. Stay tuned to the LAMB for more of the LIONs, culminating with our Top 10 Films of 2008.

* Yes, I know that Cheetara is neither a lamb nor a lion. Still, the thought of using a famous female Thundercat for the Best Actress award was too good to pass up. And you better believe you know who will be featured tomorrow…unless I call an audible, that is…

The LAMB Devours the Oscars - Best Actress

Editor’s note: Welcome to the ninth of a multi-part series dissecting the 2008 Academy Awards, brought to you by the Large Association of Movie Blogs and its assorted members. Every weekday leading up to the Oscars, a new post written by a different LAMB will be published, each covering a different category (or more) of the Oscars (there are 24 in all). To read any other posts regarding this event, please just click on the tag following the post. Thank you, and enjoy!

By Matt of The Spoon.

Predicting the Best Actress Winner

Cate Blanchett, Julie Christie, Marion Cotillard, Laura Linney, and Ellen Page all turned in strong performances in 2006-7. At least, that’s what I’ve heard since I managed to miss every single one of their Academy Award-nominated roles — which is something you probably don’t want to hear from the guy offering his analysis on the Best Actress category. Fortunately for us all, a small thing like complete and utter ignorance is nothing new to me and won’t get in the way of my 100% guaranteed prediction for this year’s Best Actress Oscar winner.

Before we get busy, refresh yourselves with single-sentence recaps of each stars’ nominated performance which I liberated from various media outlets. Click on the link for the accompanying film review.

Elizabeth: The Golden Age: Cate Blanchett as “Queen Elizabeth … faces pressure [from] Spain’s rebellious King Philip II, … [a] jealous Mary Queen of Scots, [and] plans [of a] hostile takeover.”

http://www.contactmusic.com/new/film.nsf/reviews/elizabeththegoldenage

Away From Her: Julie Christie stars as Fiona, an “Ontario woman succumbing to Alzheimer’s… [who takes] an interest in another [nursing home] patient” who is not her husband of forty-four years.

http://www.newyorker.com/arts/critics/cinema/2007/05/14/070514crci_cinema_denby?currentPage=2

La Vie en Rose: Marion Cotillard is “troubled singer [Edith Piaf], whom she portrays from her late teens to her death at a ravaged 47.”

http://www.calendarlive.com/movies/reviews/cl-et-vieenrose8jun08,0,3511610.story

The Savages: Laura Linney plays “a struggling playwright doing odd jobs in Manhattan and diddling a married man… [who, with her brother, must care for] the father who neglected them as kids and now needs all their attention, what with dementia knocking.”

http://www.rollingstone.com/reviews/movie/14721307/review/17436185/savages

Juno: Ellen Page stars as Juno who is “hip-smart, witty and mature beyond her age… [and] finds herself pregnant after a sexual encounter with her best friend.”

http://movies.about.com/od/juno/fr/juno120507.htm

Now brace yourselves for my uninformed yet inexplicably statistics-heavy analysis of this year’s Best Actress nominees.

Eighty actresses have won an Oscar for Best Actress during the award’s seventy-nine year history (Katharine Hepburn and Barbara Streisand tied in 1967). Examining the conditions of previous winners from the first, 1928’s Janet Gaynor, to the most recent, 2006’s Helen Mirren, unmasks several trends that make predicting 2008’s Best Actress winner easier than peeing in the dark.

Based on my exhaustive Wikipedia research, 68% of all Best Actress winners have been American. The last five years reflect a break in this trend but even with recent winners from Britain (Helen Mirren), South Africa (Charlize Theron), and Australia (Nicole Kidman), Americans still account for 40% of the winners in the past five years and 70% in the last ten.

Based on this information, Marion Cotillard (French), Ellen Page (Canadian), Julie Christie (British) and Cate Blanchett (Australian) can be voted off the figurative Oscar Island.

That leaves Laura Linney as the lone American nominee and most likely Best Actress winner.

But let’s say the Nationality method is too reliant on bigoted worldviews for your taste. Fair enough. Here’s a breakdown of the nominees from an age-ism perspective.

The youngest winner for Best Actress was Marlee Matlin (Children of a Lesser God) who was twenty-one years old when she received her award in 1987. The oldest winner was Jessica Tandy (Driving Miss Daisy) who was a tidy eighty years old at her 1990 win.

Ellen Page will be twenty-one during this year’s Academy Awards on February 24th. However, only 5% of all Best Actress winners have been younger than twenty-five which makes Ellen Page an unlikely candidate to win this year’s Oscar.

A closer inspection of past winners also reveals that 90% of all Best Actresses were less than sixty years of age at the time of their victorious award ceremony, which would make Julie Christy (66) another statistically unlikely winner.

This leaves Cate Blanchett (38), Marion Cotillard (32), and Laura Linney (44) as the remaining actresses who fall within the more common age range of previous Best Actress winners. At first glance, all three actresses have very similar chances to win based on their relative youth. However, a second examination once again offers a differing perspective.

Age-ism’s wrinkled claw tends to brush off actresses in their 40s as only 15% of past winners can be found in this range while a pinkly robust 39% of previous winners were in their 30s.

Recent history reflects this successful trend for younger actresses. With the exception of Helen Mirren, all previous Best Actress winners were under forty years of age going back to 1995 when Susan Sarandon (50 at the time) won for Dead Man Walking.

In fact, the list of recent winners clearly shows a shift for especially young actresses. Once again with the exception of Helen Mirren, all Best Actress winners since 1996 have been thirty-five years of age or younger, though all winners were older than twenty-five.

Of the 2008 nominees only Marion Cotillard fits this criterion (excluding Ellen Page for her extreme youth).

So there you have it. This year’s winner for Best Actress will be Marion Cotillard… and Laura Linney? Perhaps my statistical analysis was not as definitive as I had expected. Hopefully my breakdown still managed to teach you a few new tidbits about the Best Actress category and proved once again that no matter what perspective you use, I’m always an idiot.

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